A Trap is Only a Trap If You Don't Know About It

“A trap is only a trap if you don't know about it. If you know about it, it's a challenge" -China Miêville

Why do we do what we do? Do the poorest countries in the world choose to be trapped in a continuous struggle of internal conflict? Recently, I've been reading The Bottom Billion by Paul Collier. It focuses on the poorest countries on the planet and explores their past and present economic and political situations. Each of these counties has fallen into one of four traps that keeps them in an endless cycle of internal struggles. These countries fell victim to a certain set of circumstances and cannot seem to find a way out. Conflict, natural resources, bad governance and being landlocked are the four traps identified by Collier. I'm going to explore how Russia does, or does not, fall into these traps. 

The Conflict Trap

The Russia-Georgia conflict, the 1st and 2nd Chechen Wars, and the current conflict in Syria are on the list of major conflicts Russia has been involved in since it's establishment in 1991. Russia has generally remained strong internally, and has avoided civil war since branching off from the USSR. Not one of these major conflicts, nor any others, have caused Russia to collapse economically and fall into the Conflict Trap. 

The Natural Resource Trap

Some people that natural resources automatically means wealth. Natural resources can be profitable if used correctly, but if a country has an abundance of natural resources and fails to manage them effectively, they can fall into the natural resource trap. Some countries fight about resources within their own country, while others can't figure out how to export and distribute them effectively. Russia is rich in oil, gas, coal, and timber. Most of these resources are located in remote areas that are difficult to reach, but Russia has managed to extract them and remain a leading producer and exporter of minerals, gold and fuel. In 2010, Russia exported $376.7 billion worth of natural resources and imported $191.8 billion. Being such a strong exporter in the world economy, it would be hard to imagine Russia falling victim to the Natural Resource Trap explained by Collier. 


The Bad Governance Trap


Collier makes the claim that countries that have bad governance can grow and maintain reasonable economic policies, like Bangladesh, the most corrupt country in the world. Bad governance can also cause a crash an economy in the blink of an eye. Still, it's important to note that having a good government can only do so much. The economic growth rate plateaus around 10%, no matter how good your government is. For bad governance to drag the nation into the bottom billion, it needs "qualifiers". Bad governance alone will most likely not cause a country to fall into a continuous cycle of struggle. 

Russia, no matter how bad it's government is, does not meet these other qualifications. Russia has a population of 142,517,670 and became independent of the USSR when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Russia's education system is ranked 20th in the recent ranking published by the Economist and has produced nearly 100% literacy. Its per capita GDP is $17,000. The variables that keep a country from falling into the Bad Governance trap include a large population, high income, and a greater proportion of people with a substantial education. Judging by the statistics, Russia probably won't be falling into this trap anytime soon. 


The Landlocked Trap

Being surrounded by poor neighbors can be detrimental to a country's international trade and growth. Being as large as it is, Russia has many neighbors. Some of these neighbors include Kazakhstan, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Finland. None of these neighbors have had enough of an economic impact on Russia to cause an economic collapse or any significant impact on trade. Like i mentioned in the Natural Resource Trap, Russia is one of the world's largest exporters. 

While Russia may be gradually falling into other traps not explained by Collier in the Bottom Billion, it has managed steered clear of these four major traps. Russia is a strong nation internally and has healthy international relationships. For now, the Russians are optimistic about their future as a successful country. The countries that have found themselves in the bottom billion have most likely developed learned helplessness, and will need help seeing a way out. So does this mean they're choosing to stay in the Bottom Billion? I believe they are truly trapped and will need help unlearning this helplessness some of these poor countries have developed.